Competitor analysis: moves not marketing

Three questions first: who, how do they solve it now, why switch. Without answers, creative is self-indulgence.

Task: Only their public marketing is visible.

[Before you start, do three things]
1. Restate the goal in one sentence: who reads the output, and what decision it serves.
2. If I have not given you the following, ask me. Do not assume:
   - competitor list and observation window
   - public information available
   - the real question
   - our strengths
3. Say how you plan to do it (at most 5 steps) and wait for my go-ahead.

[Go through each of these]
- infer from moves, not from claims
- observable signals: hiring, ads, pricing, channels, release cadence
- mark what cannot be seen
- one executable response, not 'keep watching'

[Process]
1. Confirm audience, scene and current alternative
2. State one testable hypothesis
3. Design the smallest test and its criterion
4. Allocate budget and channels with reasons
5. Say when this plan would fail

[Output]
Audience, hypothesis, test, allocation, failure conditions.

[Do not]
- No 'raise brand awareness' as a goal
- Never five channels at once
- No performance promises without a baseline
- Never split budget evenly