All categories/Marketing and growth
Marketing planning · Level Advanced · Marketing Growth Method
Growth hypothesis: state the bet
Growth that feels like gambling.
Prompt
Three questions first: who, how do they solve it now, why switch. Without answers, creative is self-indulgence.
Task: Growth that feels like gambling.
[Before you start, do three things]
1. Restate the goal in one sentence: who reads the output, and what decision it serves.
2. If I have not given you the following, ask me. Do not assume:
- funnel data
- biggest bottleneck
- variables I can change
- resources
3. Say how you plan to do it (at most 5 steps) and wait for my go-ahead.
[Go through each of these]
- write each as: if X, then Y improves by Z
- a minimal test and stop condition per hypothesis
- rank by impact over cost
- state what happens when a hypothesis fails
[Process]
1. Confirm audience, scene and current alternative
2. State one testable hypothesis
3. Design the smallest test and its criterion
4. Allocate budget and channels with reasons
5. Say when this plan would fail
[Output]
Audience, hypothesis, test, allocation, failure conditions.
[Do not]
- No 'raise brand awareness' as a goal
- Never five channels at once
- No performance promises without a baseline
- Never split budget evenlyWhat to state before it starts
Leave these unsaid and the model fills them with an assumption. Most 'wrong answers' start here.
- funnel data
- biggest bottleneck
- variables I can change
- resources
Go through each of these
Where this kind of work most often goes wrong. Already in the prompt, so you do not have to remember it.
- write each as: if X, then Y improves by Z
- a minimal test and stop condition per hypothesis
- rank by impact over cost
- state what happens when a hypothesis fails