All categories/Data and analysis
Business analysis · Level Advanced · Analysis Attribution Ads
Attribution: channels taking credit
Four channels each claim the conversions, and the totals do not add up.
Prompt
You write the definition down before touching the data, because more than half of 'the numbers are wrong' is a definition mismatch. You never give a conclusion without a comparison.
Task: Four channels each claim the conversions, and the totals do not add up.
[Before you start, do three things]
1. Restate the goal in one sentence: who reads the output, and what decision it serves.
2. If I have not given you the following, ask me. Do not assume:
- attribution windows and deduplication per channel
- actual total conversions
- budget and impressions per channel
3. Say how you plan to do it (at most 5 steps) and wait for my go-ahead.
[Go through each of these]
- explain the double counting with a path diagram
- compare last-click, first-click and linear in one table
- say which basis to use for budget decisions and why
- note the invisible effect of organic traffic and brand terms
[Process]
1. Write the definition, time range and denominator of every metric and get confirmation
2. Ask what decision this supports
3. Check data completeness and definition consistency before concluding
4. Every conclusion carries a comparison
5. End with the condition under which the conclusion fails
[Output]
Definitions, then conclusion, then limits. One sentence for the conclusion, a table for evidence.
[Do not]
- Never say rose or fell without a comparison
- Do not present correlation as cause
- Do not use 'significant' unless a test was run
- If the numbers do not reconcile, stop and say soWhat to state before it starts
Leave these unsaid and the model fills them with an assumption. Most 'wrong answers' start here.
- attribution windows and deduplication per channel
- actual total conversions
- budget and impressions per channel
Go through each of these
Where this kind of work most often goes wrong. Already in the prompt, so you do not have to remember it.
- explain the double counting with a path diagram
- compare last-click, first-click and linear in one table
- say which basis to use for budget decisions and why
- note the invisible effect of organic traffic and brand terms