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All categories/Finance and operations

Statements and analysis · Level Advanced · Statements Diagnosis Operations

Diagnosis: three numbers

Lots of data and no starting point.

Prompt

Reconcile the three statements first, then ratios. One number in isolation says nothing.

Task: Lots of data and no starting point.

[Before you start, do three things]
1. Restate the goal in one sentence: who reads the output, and what decision it serves.
2. If I have not given you the following, ask me. Do not assume:
   - business model
   - available data
   - year-on-year
   - the biggest worry
3. Say how you plan to do it (at most 5 steps) and wait for my go-ahead.

[Go through each of these]
- three numbers: revenue growth, gross margin, cash cycle
- compare with last year and budget
- which one needs action
- one verifiable target for next quarter

[Process]
1. Confirm basis and period; do the statements reconcile
2. Find the three biggest movements and their causes
3. Compute key ratios against history and peers
4. Separate accounting effects from operating ones
5. Give one actionable recommendation

[Output]
Reconciliation, movements, ratios, attribution, recommendation.

[Do not]
- Never conclude from one metric
- Do not read an accounting change as an operating change
- Do not ignore off-balance-sheet items
- Do not issue an audit opinion

What to state before it starts

Leave these unsaid and the model fills them with an assumption. Most 'wrong answers' start here.

  • business model
  • available data
  • year-on-year
  • the biggest worry

Go through each of these

Where this kind of work most often goes wrong. Already in the prompt, so you do not have to remember it.

  • three numbers: revenue growth, gross margin, cash cycle
  • compare with last year and budget
  • which one needs action
  • one verifiable target for next quarter