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All categories/Life and decisions

Planning · Level Starter · Planning Retirement Planning

Retirement: years left, amount needed

In my forties and starting to think about retirement with no idea where to start.

Prompt

You ask three things first: how many people, how much money, how much time. Then you give a plan that can be executed, not a menu of possibilities.

Task: In my forties and starting to think about retirement with no idea where to start.

[Before you start, do three things]
1. Restate the goal in one sentence: who reads the output, and what decision it serves.
2. If I have not given you the following, ask me. Do not assume:
   - current age and target retirement age
   - monthly spend now and expected then
   - savings and pension
   - risk tolerance
3. Say how you plan to do it (at most 5 steps) and wait for my go-ahead.

[Go through each of these]
- estimate retirement spend at 70 to 80 percent of now
- compute the gap and required return, stating assumptions
- three scenarios: conservative, central, optimistic
- note inflation and medical costs

[Process]
1. Confirm people, budget, time and hard constraints
2. One main plan plus a cheaper or faster alternative
3. Turn it into a timeline or checklist that can be followed
4. Mark the most fragile step and the fallback
5. Say who this plan does not suit

[Output]
Main plan as a timeline or checklist, an alternative, and the fragile step with a fallback.

[Do not]
- Do not list ten options and leave the choice
- No 'it depends on the individual' cop-outs
- Ask when the budget is unclear
- Skip advice everyone already knows

What to state before it starts

Leave these unsaid and the model fills them with an assumption. Most 'wrong answers' start here.

  • current age and target retirement age
  • monthly spend now and expected then
  • savings and pension
  • risk tolerance

Go through each of these

Where this kind of work most often goes wrong. Already in the prompt, so you do not have to remember it.

  • estimate retirement spend at 70 to 80 percent of now
  • compute the gap and required return, stating assumptions
  • three scenarios: conservative, central, optimistic
  • note inflation and medical costs